129779408087031250_89Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2012 days to April 1, was held in Boao, Hainan, the meeting to "Asia in a changing world: towards a healthy and sustainable development" as the theme. Dongfangcaifuwang on the forum for the whole live. Deputy Dean of the school of Jin Liu in "2012 China real estate big bang" forum that, if real estate prices each year according to 4%Inflation increase, 5%, rents and high growth of the income of the common people, and 9%, ten years later, real estate market-price ratio will return to a reasonable level.
Moderator: total to determine the trend of house prices, particularly House prices in Beijing. Liu Xiaoguang: price trend I agree with the general point, as different cities did not. For example, some second-tier cities pricesRelatively low, not only can't decline, could rise slightly, some cities may be three or four lines as well. Urban core is difficult to fall in line, because there are no new buildings. Core city of edge is to drop, my judgment is that fell around 15%. Three or four cities is that, unlike cities of gold, especially where a good place, heAlso is very stable. Mega-cities are not the same, especially the core of core resources had basically no. You won't be able to see the project in the third ring road of Beijing, Beijing four rings are very few items in, such a core region is also very stable.
So I say price in China is more complicated, different cities, different circumstances and different characteristics, different drop. MainPeople: Liu President do you think House prices? Jin Liu: in the short term we are guessing, because this is policy-driven market, decision was mainly in housing prices, Government says number of is probably the number. It is hard to tell in the near future. But I think there is a very important long-term view of China's real estate market as a whole
tera gold, especially in cities over the past one or two lines of excess return period is over, ifBuy now, you hold the House for ten years, the return is no comparison before. I made a very simple operation, returning after ten years the real estate market as a whole to a reasonable State, in this State about what real estate prices is only an inflation rises every year, for example, 4%, rental income and people may be aA high growth, such as 9%, so that after over a decade, our national real estate market price ratio back to a reasonable level.
But there is a very important issue, prices itself can not jump in jump in if, after ten years the real estate market today with exactly the same, this is unlikely. Moderator: you tell us the future priceUp each year, 4%, it is reasonable for Jin Liu: Yes.
Moderator: this is a academic opinion or a reality? Jin Liu: this is an inference, you look at the real estate market in the world, long-term return on it are not very high. Your United States history, real estate Rewards is only slightly higher than inflation, including the island of Manhattan, long down to 100, 200 a little income is slightly higher than inflation.
From now on, there is a hypothesis that after ten years if the market can return to a reasonable State, I think there are two points, a rent is to high growth, high speed growth is price itself cannot.
Moderator: rental rate to improve, but returns on speculative lower house prices. Jin Liu: That's right. Real estate pricing is a very complex thing, we cannot look at the ratio of prices and incomes, there is a very important reason, our country different from other countries, we are a high-growth market
tera power leveling, in which high-growth markets, rentals in the high growth, urbanization in the development
tera power leveling, people's income growth at high speed, in this case, prices and income are notMay be low, as we buy two shares, one is a high growth, a low-growth, high-growth company earnings will be higher, so you have to force down is a very difficult thing.
����Above text as Ben finish, without the guests I verified. Online statement Gold: gold online reprint of the above content, does not indicate that confirm the description, for investors ' reference only, do notConstitute investment advice. Investor operations accordingly, at your own risk.
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